Academic English

Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

H. Charles J. Godfray, 1 * John R. Beddington, 2 Ian R. Crute, 3 Lawrence Haddad, 4 David

Lawrence, 5

James F. Muir, 6 Jules Pretty, 7 Sherman Robinson, 8 Sandy M. Thomas, 9 Camilla Toulmin 10

Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will

increa for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition

to the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent

requirement to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate

change are a further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is ud

more efficiently and equitably. A multifaceted and linked global strategy is needed to ensure

sustainable and equitable food curity, different components of which are explored here.

The past half-century has en marked growth in food production, allowing for a dramatic

decrea in the proportion of the world’s people that are hungry, despite a doubling of the total

population (Fig. 1) (1, 2). Nevertheless, more than one in ven people today still do not have

access to sufficient protein and energy from their diet, and even more suffer from some form of

micronutrient malnourishment (3). The world is now facing a new t of intercting challenges

(4). The global population will continue to grow, yet it is likely to plateau at some 9 billion people

by roughly the middle of this century. A major correlate of this deceleration in population growth

is incread wealth, and with higher purchasing power comes higher consumption and a greater

demand for procesd food, meat, dairy, and fish, all of which add pressure to the food supply

system. At the same time, food producers are experiencing greater competition for land, water, and

energy, and the need to curb the many negative effects of food production on the environment is

becoming increasingly clear (5, 6). Overarching all of the issues is the threat of the effects of

substantial climate change and concerns about how mitigation and adaptation measures may affect

the food system (7, 8).

A threefold challenge now faces the world (9): Match the rapidly changing demand for food

from a larger and more affluent population to its supply; do so in ways that are environmentally

and socially sustainable; and ensure that the world’s poorest people are no longer hungry. This

challenge requires changes in the way food is produced, stored, procesd, distributed, and

accesd that are as radical as tho that occurred during the 18th- and 19th-century Industrial and

Agricultural Revolutions and the 20th-century Green Revolution. Increas in production will

have an important part to play, but they will be constrained as never before by the finite resources

provided by Earth’s lands, oceans, and atmosphere (10).

Patterns in global food prices are indicators of trends in the availability of food, at least for

tho who can afford it and have access to world markets. Over the past century, gross food prices

have generally fallen, leveling off in the past three decades but punctuated by price spikes such as

that caud by the 1970s oil crisis. In mid-2008, there was an unexpected rapid ri in food prices,

the cau of which is still being debated, that subsided when the world economy went into

recession (11). However, many (but not all) commentators have predicted that this spike heralds a

period of rising and more volatile food prices driven primarily by incread demand from rapidly

developing countries, as well as by competition for resources from first-generation biofuels

production (12). Incread food prices will stimulate greater investment in food production, but

the critical importance of food to human well-being and also to social and political stability makes

it likely that governments and other organizations will want to encourage food production beyond

that driven by simple market mechanisms (13). The long-term nature of returns on investment for

many aspects of food production and the importance of policies that promote sustainability and

equity also argue against purely relying on market solutions.

So how can more food be produced sustainably? In the past, the primary solution to food

shortages has been to bring more land into agriculture and to exploit new fish stocks. Yet over the

past 5 decades, while grain production has more than doubled, the amount of land devoted to

arable agriculture globally has incread by only ~9% (14). Some new land could be brought into

cultivation, but the competition for land from other human activities makes this an increasingly

unlikely and costly solution, particularly if protecting biodiversity and the public goods provided

by natural ecosystems (for example, carbon storage in rainforest) are given higher priority (15). In

recent decades, agricultural land that was formerly productive has been lost to urbanization and

other human us, as well as to dertification, salinization, soil erosion, and other conquences

of unsustainable land management (16). Further loss, which may be exacerbated by climate

change, are likely (7). Recent policy decisions to produce first generation biofuels on good quality

agricultural land have added to the competitive pressures (17). Thus, the most likely scenario is

that more food will need to be produced from the same amount of (or even less) land. Moreover,

there are no major new fishing grounds: Virtually all capture fisheries are fully exploited, and

most are overexploited.

*The writers are members of the UK Government Office for Science's Foresight Project on

Global Food and Farming Futures.

Source: Adapted from Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J. R., Crute, I. R., Haddad, L.,

Lawrence, D., Muir, J. F., et al. (2010). The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science. 327

(5987), 812-818.

Fig. 1. Changes in the relative global production of crops and animals since 1961 (when

relative production scaled to 1 in 1961). (A) Major crop plants and (B) major types of livestock.

[Source: (2)]

Main grains (wheat, barley,maize, rice, oats)

Coar grains (millet, sorghum)

Root crops (cassava, potato)

Chickens

Pigs

Cattle and buffalo

Sheep and goats

4.3.

Look at the words and phras in

the table below and find words and

phras in the text with a similar

meaning.

Complete the table with the word or

phra, its word class and the number

of the line where it appears. Note that

the definitions are listed in the same

order as the relevant words in the

text.

Definition Line number Word or phra Word class

a. deal with (Para. 1)

b. appear or emerge (Para. 2)

f. opposite situation (Para. 3)

greenhou emissions (Para.

h. very possible (Para. 7)

i. actions/policies (Para. 8)

Study Tip

Taking an interest in features

of the text such as the writer's

choice of language will not only

help your understanding of the text,

but will also help to develop your

reading rearch skills in the long

term

c. estimated high point or

maximum (Para. 2)

d. a large amount/many

(Para. 3)

e. having insufficient food

(Para. 3)

g. total amount of

6)

Text 5b looks in more detail at the issues we face in producing enough food to feed our

growing world population.

Understanding the Focus task

You need to think carefully about what the task asks you to do, becau it will determine

what you should concentrate on in your reading. It will also determine how you read. You are

going to read three more texts and produce a t of notes that will help you complete the

assignment specified in the Focus task.

5.1 Read the first part of the Focus task. What is your reaction? Choo from 1-5.

The global population has incread from 2 billion to 6.8 billion in the past 80 years. In the next 40

1 I'm amazed

years it is predicted to ri to 9 billion.

2 I'm quite surprid.

3 I'm concerned.

4 I'm unconcerned.

5 I'm not surprid.

5.2 List some possible reasons for the unprecedented phenomenon mentioned in the Focus

task. Compare your list with tho of other students.

5.3 Now look at the cond part of the Focus task and answer the two questions.

What are the challenges and what measures can be most effective in feeding such a

1 .In what ways have)our eating habits and tho of your friends and family changed since

rapidly expanding population?

childhood?

2. Can you explain why the changes might have occurred?

5.4 Write answers to questions 1-4. Then discuss your answers with other students. All the

questions relate to the cond part of the Focus task.

are two questions. What are they?

2. Discuss the questions with other students. What do you understand by the

challenges?

3. What do you understand by measures?

4. Do you need to consider all possible measures or just the most effective ones?

Predicting specific content in a text

You have already practid predicting content as a way of improving comprehension.

Prediction can be even more effective when you focus on specific issues you expect to

find in the text.

6.1 Brainstorm ideas with other students.

What will Text Sh identify as:

1 .the main challenges involved in feeding a rapidly expanding global population?

2. the measures that need to he taken to meet the challenges?

6.2 Read the abstract from Text Sb and compare it with what you wrote in Ex 6.1

The abstract briefly mentions the ch川enges and measures needing to he taken. Did you

think of any of the same issues?

Identifying the main ideas

7.1 Match the brief summaries to the main contents of the four ctions, 1-4, of the text on

the next page. There is one extra summary that is less appropriate. For this summary write N/A

(not appropriate).

Summary Section

Finding new food sources for an expanding

population

Evaluating some possible solutions

Providing for both planetary and human needs

Trends in food availability and prices

Identifying the future global challenges

Developing notes

Re-read the text and write notes relating to the challenges the Focus task mentions and

necessary measures that need to be taken.

8.1 Read the text once and write brief notes relevant to the assignment.

A Read the text once and write brief notes relevant to the assignment.

B Discuss your notes with another student and amend them if necessary

C Refer back to the text and add any further notes if appropriate.

D U your notes to help you complete the table below.

Challenges Measures

Key reading skills： developing notes

Well-written notes will provide you with an effective tool for revision and writing rearch.

You should therefore practi developing your own style f note-taking-one that works for you.

Bear in mind that your notes will lways be more effective if you have a clear idea of what

information you ish to extract from the text before you begin reading.

Organising paragraphs into a logical order

A well-written paragraph should be both coherent

Study Tip

and cohesive. The task below will provide further

Recognising coherence and

practice in organising a paragraph in such a way.

cohesion in a text will benefit

Remember to pay attention to cohesive markers, such

your writing as well as your

as linking words and expressions, and any pronoun

understanding of the text.

referencing or other words/phras that link back to

previous ideas.

9.1 Reorgani the paragraph in the table below in a logical order. Nummer the ntences

1-5.

Sentence Number

Particular emphasis should be given to

sustainability

Recent studies suggest that the world will need

70% to 100% more food by 2050.

Only when this has been fully established might

a global catastrophe be avoided.

Major strategies for contributing to the

challenge of feeding 9 billion people, including

the most disadvantaged, therefore need to be

explored.

At the same time, the combined role of the

natural and social sciences in analysing and

addressing the challengeof feeding the poorest

must be prioritid.

A well-written text should be both coherent and cohesive. The coherence comes from the

logical ordering of the text content and the cohesion comes from the appropriate u of linguistic

features such as cohesive markers, e.g., however, subquently, in this respect, the, etc.

Working out meaning from context and considering word class

10.1 Complete the table on the next page with words or phras of the same or similar

meaning (i.e., synonyms) from Text Sb, Sections 1-3. Write the word class and the line number

where it appears in the text.

The words in the left column are listed in the same order as the relevant synonyms in the text.

Synonym Word or phra Word class Line number

significant (S1)

stop increasing (S1)

approximately(S1)

competition (S1)

concerning (S1)

having greater wealth

far-reaching/very

intersperd (S3)

sudden sharp ris

decread (S3)

unstable (S3)

encourage (S3)

(S2)

significant (S2)

(S3)

The words and phras in the table above have been lected becau they could be very

uful for you to know and to be able to u during your future academic studies. Try to work out

the meaning of such words and phras (if you do not already know them) from the context and

then record them in your vocabulary notebook.

One major decision you need to make when reading an academic text is to decide which parts

of the text are the most relevant to your reading needs. This will save you time and allow you to

make the best u of the most relevant material.